Full Tilt Poker Game #2695355445: Table Hedge Top - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:07:35 ET - 2007/06/17
Seat 1: LongAlpha ($362)
Seat 2: bigpapi3415 ($216.40)
Seat 3: WayneGrow ($406.30)
Seat 4: URaACEhole ($208.10)
Seat 5: Stylistic ($819.40)
Seat 6: deathbyajd ($416.30)
Seat 7: Hero ($615.10)
Seat 8: SantosLHalper1 ($270.25) is sitting out
Seat 9: styleWcash ($424)
styleWcash posts the small blind of $2
LongAlpha posts the big blind of $4
5 seconds left to act
The button is in seat #7
Holecards:
Dealt to Hero [
]
WayneGrow folds
URaACEhole folds
Stylistic raises to $14
deathbyajd folds
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero raises to $50
styleWcash folds
LongAlpha folds
Stylistic calls $36
Flop :
[
]
Stylistic checks
Hero bets $80
Stylistic raises to $250
Hero raises to $565.10, and is all in
Stylistic calls $315.10
Hero shows [
]
Stylistic shows [
]
Turn:
[
] [
]
River:
[
] [
]
Hero shows two pair Aces and Queens
Stylistic shows a flush Queen high
Stylistic wins the pot ($1 233 .20) with a flush Queen high
Hero is sitting out
SUMMARY:
Total pot $1 236 .20 | Rake $3
Board:
[
]
Seat 1: LongAlpha (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: bigpapi3415 is sitting out
Seat 3: WayneGrow didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: URaACEhole didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Stylistic showed [
] and won ($1 233.20) with a flush Queen high
Seat 6: deathbyajd didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: Hero (button) showed [
] and lost with two pair Aces and Queens
Seat 8: SantosLHalper1 is sitting out
Seat 9: styleWcash (small blind) folded before the Flop
But here's my equity assuming a pretty reasonable range of hands for Opponent, even giving him to small suited connectors where he flop a flush (I'm about a 60% favorite vs. a reasonable range). Earlier in the session, I raised his pre flop raises about 3-4 times and thought he was going to come after me sooner or later; I thought he was coming after me now. Wrong. Lucky for him. The funny thing is, is that I sat at this table just to play with this guy because I noticed he had been losing lately. Seems to work out that way for me when I target guys that are running bad that day.
Board: 2d Qd 9d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.475% 60.47% 00.00% 5987 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 39.525% 39.53% 00.00% 3913 0.00 { KdKh, KdKs, 99, 6d5d, 4d3d, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs }
Just thinking here that there is so much luck in poker. I'd say that 80-85% of the money you win or lose in NL hold'em is made from 15-20% of your situations. After the end of any session, normally you can recall several big pots that you played that either made or would have made a big difference in whether you won/lost or how much you won.
I just played the following hand and on the flop I was a 55.5% favorite to win. So fucker made the right play - I would have pushed all in too if I were him thinking that I may have 15 outs to win (although he really only had 11). The point I'm making is that 45% of time I'm going to lose $167 and instead of booking a winning session of $280 I would have booked a losing session of $100 something. That's a $380 swing on a coin flip. Some days the flips are good (like today for me) while many other times they aren't. I think many players, including myself, tend to ignore how much luck/variance is involved in poker and soely attribute these types of winning sessions to their "good play" instead of to just "plain luck".
I had almost this same exact hand come up at Commerce a while back at the 10/20 NL game. I had about $2,000 in play and fucker had me covered. I had KK again, and fucker had AQsuited, and the same type of flop came and we got all our money in. I was fortunate to win that one too, and I remember thinking after I scooped the $4,000+ pot, that it so easily could have left me broke instead of with $4,000 "extra" in my bankroll. Variance...just a thought.
FullTiltPoker Game #2552735514: Table Fogg - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:49:50 ET - 2007/05/31
Seat 1: Hero ($385.80)
Seat 2: Victorious Aces ($167.60)
Seat 3: INTREPIDD FOX ($236.20)
Seat 4: cobster316 ($452.60)
Seat 5: podo114 ($535)
Seat 6: Knutchen ($121.80) is sitting out
Seat 7: ur_an_ASSet ($477.10)
Seat 8: dlsmith3 ($339)
Seat 9: GypsySprings ($588.10)
GypsySprings posts the small blind of $2
Hero posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #8
Holecards:
Dealt to Hero [
]
Victorious Aces calls $4
INTREPIDD FOX folds
cobster316 folds
podo114 raises to $16
ur_an_ASSet folds
dlsmith3 has 15 seconds left to act
dlsmith3 folds
GypsySprings folds
Hero calls $12
Victorious Aces calls $12
Flop :
[
]
Hero checks
Victorious Aces checks
podo114 bets $36
Hero raises to $110
Victorious Aces raises to $151.60, and is all in
podo114 folds
Hero calls $41.60
Victorious Aces shows [
]
Hero shows [
]
Turn:
[
] [
]
River:
[
] [
]
Victorious Aces shows a pair of Jacks
Hero shows a pair of Kings
Hero wins the pot ($386 .20) with a pair of Kings
Victorious Aces is sitting out
SUMMARY:
Total pot $389 .20 | Rake $3
Board:
[
]
Seat 1: Hero (big blind) showed [
] and won ($386.20) with a pair of Kings
Seat 2: Victorious Aces showed [
] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 3: INTREPIDD FOX didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: cobster316 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: podo114 folded on the Flop
Seat 6: Knutchen is sitting out
Seat 7: ur_an_ASSet didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: dlsmith3 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: GypsySprings (small blind) folded before the Flop