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Variance???

My results for the first 2 weeks of 2008:
Week 1: +$1,650 playing online
Week 2: -$1,700 playing online, -$120 playing live and -$335 for live tournaments.

The $335 tournament at the Bike was a joke.  So many calling stations.  A typical hand was a raise by someone in early position getting 3-5 callers.  I will say though that I did have 1 good player and 1 great player at my 2 tables.  Other than that, fishy.  To be more specific, the fish just call too much and have no idea or no respect for how position and hand ranges work together.  I suppose I'm just bitter since I took a couple of poundings to bust out of there. 

Notable Hand #1:  I have AKo vs AKo.  We get it all in preflop.  I have about 18,000 in chips with the blinds at 300-600 + 100 ante.  Opponent has about 6,000.  He turns a flush.  What can you do?  Pretty standard play by both of us. Just a pathetic 2% occurence for me. 

Notable Hand #2:  I raise in early position with KK.  I have about 11,000 in chips, blinds at 300-600 +100 ante. The small blinds calls (has about 15,000 in chip).  SB bets about 1/3 the pot on 278 rainbow flop.  I push all in.  He calls with A2 and turns an Ace and I'm busted.  Ace duece????  What the hell did he put me on?  I guess AK/AQ?  C'mon dude....These tv watching, calling stations.  It seems I can never beat the fish.

I've been playing about 25+ hours a week since early December and it's been just up and down, (it's down right now).  I've been playing mostly 3-4 tables of 2/4 NL on Full Tilt.  For the first 2 weeks it was pretty steady, then I dropped down about $1,500, then I had a $3,500 upswing over the next 10 days, and the last week has been down (the "Week 2" numbers mentioned above).  Those guys who play poker for a living have my upmost respect.  This game is so frustrating, even when you feel you've been playing well.  Ok, that's enough venting for now.  Next, I'm going to see if I can turn my luck around playing live games. 

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Closing out 2007

Well, the last month of the year was a total disaster poker wise.  I spent/lost about $23,000 in total.  What a crappy way to end the year. 

I went to the WPT Boot Camp in the Bahamas where they had 2 pretty good tournaments, although I sucked in both.  I guess sometimes you just have no luck, and bad luck, and that makes you play poorly.  I really hate to listen to people's bad beat stories and hate to complain about my own so I'll try to minimize what I say about them.  I also didn't play that great, so it wasn't all out of my control. 

At the cash games at the Bahamas I lost about $2,300, I lost 3 key pots.  I missed a flush draw with 2 over cards (AQ, a 15 outer) when we got it all in on the flop for about $500.  Then my KK got cracked by QQ when a Q flopped and I lost another $500.  I should have lost only half of that since I made a bad call on the river when it was pretty obvious I was beat.  I was tired of getting kicked in the nuts I guess.  Finally, to end that night, I was heads up with this joker that everybody at the table was talking about a couple of hours earlier and were trying to get him back into the game.  Everybody was salivating about this guy, saying that he was such a fish and dumped off about $5K between that day and the day before.  I was a little scared to play with him since it seems like I always get beat by the sucker.  Anyway, we get it all in on the flop.  I have QdQh and he has Ad8d on a flop of 7d2d2h.  He hits an Ace on the river and wins the $2,800 pot.  I lost $1,250 on that hand.  But actually it wasn't that bad of a beat, he had 11 outs, which gave him about 45% to win.  I've won my share of 11 outers.  It's just that it stings when it's worth $2,800.

Then I went to the Bellagio 5 Diamond.  I paid my way in, $15,400, since I couldn't win a $1,600 satellite.  I was pretty card dead at the satellite, but everytime my stack got down to "push mode", I was able to win a few key pots to stay alive.  I finally busted out about 10 from the bubble when my AQ couldn't catch up to 66. 

The 5 Diamond was more of card deadness, bad luck and bad play for me.  I was card dead for most of Day 1.  There were 3 key, big hands (yes, only 3, was that card dead).  I misplayed AK vs AQ on a board of A23TQ when I paid the guy off on the river.  Right before I called I said, "you have AQ, but I have to call."  The pathetic thing was that after the action on the flop I put him on AQ, then as I was pondering the call on the river, I said to myself "maybe he has AJ or AK for a split."  Pathetic...Then I was very fortunate to pick up AA vs KK and doubled up after 3 bet pushing all in preflop after about 30 seconds of acting.  Then I got bluffed out on the flop of JT7 when I had QQ in a re-raised pre-flop pot.  Day 2 was even worse.  I get 2 big pairs in 7.5 hours and hardly win anything at all.  I chopped a pot w KK when I got put All in on the flop of 678 when this rich joker shoved on me with AT and turn came 9, river 10.  This joker probably single-handedly kept me from making the money.  I hope I get to play with him again someday.  Then I finally flop my only set of 2 days with JJ on a AJ8 flop with 2 hearts.  I bet 2/3 the pot and the 2 callers fold.  They fold???  That's an action flop.  Someone was supposed to have hit that.  I guess they were just set-mining me since I was playing pretty tight.  Then finally I bust out on the 8th next to last hand of Day2 when I push all in with TT and get called by AK and he rivers a wheel.  It's funny, I got crippled at the WPT Bicycle Casino tournament when my AK couldn't catch TT when the guy was all in preflop.  Just on the wrong side of the flips... 

I guess my good luck from the WSOP finally caught up to me.  At the WSOP I must have had AK 6 or 7 times in key pots, and won all of them.  I was also all in on Day with AQ vs JJ and I rivered a wheel to stay alive.  And on Day 4 my KK flopped a set vs AA when I was all in pre-flop.  So I just keep remembering those times I was the fortunate ONE instead of them.  Have to keep my composure, right?  Otherwise I may as well just quit playing.

For 2008, my poker goals are just to play more; play enough to see if my game is good enough to warrant all of the attention I give it.  I haven't set any specific goals like I've done in the past, since I haven't hit any of them.
 
Here's to a lucky 2008...

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Vegas, although not much poker

Was in Vegas from Fri thru Mon.  Played the 2/4 NL game at Mandalay Bay which is actually a pretty good NL game compared to many Vegas poker rooms (the best games, at least for me, are at the Bellagio, then the Venetian/Wynn).  The 2/4 NL game at Mandalay has a buy in from $200 to $400.  But anyway, the player composition was probably just right for me.  You had 3-4 guys who were really trying to play well, they really thought they played very well and talked out their strategy out loud.  So I just thankfully listened and was able to pick up who I could bluff off a hand and what types of hands they were playing and what they thought I was playing.  I can never understand why people at a poker table explain to others on the table (even their poker playing friends) what they were thinking and their strategy.  THere were 2-3 typical guys you see at a Vegas poker table, drunk, playing all kinds of stupid cards, and can't fold top pair, just calls on a draw/folds on the river when they miss. 

There was 1 guy who played pretty well but had a tilt problem and would play very aggressively when he missed his hands on the river or when the board got really scary.  He had about $400-$500 throughout the night.  I pushed him off 1 hand and was just waiting to get into a good hand with him while he was tilting.  But the situation never came to fruition.  This guy was funny, the first hand I see when I get to the table he calls a raise from early position.  Then the action get raised and re-raised when it comes back to him.  He thinks for about 20 seconds and folds.  After the hand was over (the other guys showed AA and QQ), I said to this guy, "you had 8's?"  He looks at me with a smirk and says "chhhhhhhh (or some sound effect like that), no".  Two minutes later he tells his friend at the table sitting next to him he had 9's.  Yeah, buddy, I was way off.  I really thought I was going to get him sooner or later.

I finally hit a casino high hand bonus.  I limped on the button w 6c 3c and flop a straight flush.  THe best part was that the big blind also had 6 3 and we get it all in on the turn and I double up to about $900.  I also get paid $500 for the straight flush bonus.  First time I hit any kind of bonus.  Hopefully it's a sign of good things to come.

Played at the Wynn on Sun night.  I first played the 5/10 game with an unlimited buy in. I bought in for $1,000.  The stack sizes were between $600 to $3,000.  This was the first time in 2 years that I played at the Wynn so I wasn't sure what to expect.  The game was pretty passive, lots of limping, limp/calling, etc.  Just make a hand and get paid off.  Or find that 1 or 2 guys that are trying to play really well and make a believable bluff against them.  I only played for 40 mins then had to go to dinner with a bunch of guys.  I wish I could have played more. 

About 4 hours later, I got back to the Wynn and there's only 1 5/10 table with a long waiting list.  So I jump on the 2/5 NL game and it has an unlimited buy in also.  I buy in for $500.  A trend that I've been seeing a lot in Vegas lately is that there seems to be 3-4 regulars per table who all know each other, talk to each other and the dealers by name.  So, these guys become my targets for bluffs.  If you're trying to grind out a living playing 5/10, you have a big target for bluffs since you probably make most of your money off of tourists who can't fold top pair or miss their flush draws.  Once I hear someone say something that sounds like they "play for a living", I fire at them at scary boards.  I figure if you're a "pro" and you're playing 5/10, how good can you be?  If you were really good, you'd be at least at the 20/40 games at the Bellagio, wouldn't you?  I would, if I was good enough.  Lately what I've been doing is play extremely tight for the first 1-2 hours (or long enough for these regulars to notice) while I try to call out/guess their hands.  Normally I get pretty close to what they have, so now they have to figure me for a competent player and have to give me respect.  Then I can make some plays at them when I don't have it and make big bets when I do have it, which by that time hopefully it looks like I've been stealing and they want to look me up.  We'll see how long this works.

Anyway, continuing with my results from 9/15, I'm +$1,065 playing live (which doesn't include the $500 straight/flush bonus since there was no skill involved in that) over 20.4 hours and +$38 online over 32 hours.  My cumulative total since 9/15 is +$3,036 live over 42 hours (not including the bonus) and +$1,642 online over 101 hours.  In summary, I need another $10,000 to go by mid Dec for my Bellagio 5 Diamond entry fee.

Most importantly, I think I figured out my online leak.  I sorted all my daily online results for 2007 and noticed that I seem to lose a lot during the week when I play after going to work.  This seems about right, hopefully it's the cause, since I tend to be tired from working on taxes during the day.  And when I'm tired, I tend to shove my chips in without much thought and run my big pairs into sets and I also tend to make a lot of bad calls.  So since mid last week I decided NOT to play on the days I go to work.  I realized this after some losing sessions last week, the reason why I'm about break even since the last post.  So, hopefully: 1.) this is my online leak that I've been searching to find for the past year and 2.) that I have the discipline to stay away from the online tables after work.  I really need another hobby to occupy myself.

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Goal for remainder of the year - winning an entry to the 5 Diamond at the Bellagio

My goal between 9/15/07 until mid December is to win $15,000 for an entry into the Bellagio 5 Diamond event.  This event is very close to my heart since in 2005 it was my first major tournament.  I wasn't able to play in it in 2006.  I tried 2 one table satellites and 1 multi table satellite unsuccessfully in 2006.  This year, I just want to win my entry in regular games before then.  And if I don't win the $15K, I'll decide if I want to fork out the money to play in it.  before I pay out my own money for these tournaments I can't help but think that $10,000 or $15,000 can buy a lot of things and that it's a pretty excessive expenditure, if not stupid.  But, if you want the big reward and big payday, you have to be willing to pay the big price, right?  At least that's what I tell myself. 

I'm hoping to play 20-30 hours a week between 9/15 until the end of the year.  Since my work busy season has concluded for the most part on 9/15, this should be possible.  But I can't make the same mistake last time and play mostly online, I figure I need to play 2-3 days a week live to have a chance of making enough money.  My online results are just not good.  maybe the online players are much better or I just play worse online or perhaps my live game is just much better, or maybe all 3 are true.  I've made some adjustments to my online game, so hopefully it's finally turning around for me. 

As an aside, I will say that one of the biggest differences between online and live play is that at least at the 2/4 No Limit online games, the average player is much more knowledgeable about "book" poker theory, pot odds and they seem to work much harder at their games than live players at the 5/10 tables at the Bellagio/the Bike or the 10/20 at Commerce.  But the online players definitely aren't focusing that much on the moment at hand since most of the winning players are playing between 4 and 12 tables at a time.  I have no idea how you can play more than 4 tables at a time.  I get dizzy playing 4 tables after 2-3 hours.  I'd say that a typical 9 handed online 2/4 game would have 1-3 fish, 3-5 break even players and 2-3 winning players.  Live 10/20 and 5/10 games typically have 2-5 fish, 2-4 break even players and 2-3 winning players.  Bottom line, there are plenty of losing players, about the same in comparision, but there's probably more winning players online.

anyway, so far, I've played 70 hours online and am +$1,605 (playing mostly 2/4 9 handed no limit games, messing around with .50/1 PLO and small HORSE games like 3/6 limit); and played 22 hours live and am +$1,971 (playing 10/20 at Commerce and 5/10 at the Bellagio/Bike); for a toal of $3,576.  Not a bad start, not great, but not bad - losing would be bad.  I need to pick up the hours to average 20-30 a week.

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$2,500 Commerce Tournament

Another disappointing tournament for JK.  The structure was pretty good, starting with 5,000 chips with 1 hour levels, 25/50, 50/100, 75/150, 100/200, 100/200 +25 ante.  Again, I just couldn't get anything going.  I bust out at the 5th level after I push all in with AK and 2,000 in chips (more below on how I got crippled 10 hands earlier) against a Button steal who had K4.  The door card was a 4 and I'm out.  The guy who busted me was an older (gotta be close to 60) pro who's made over $1 million according to cardplayer.com.  Anyway, this old guy was just steaming because he misplayed pocket Aces the previous hand and lost a big pot.  And as luck would have it, I was the unfortunate beneficiary of his tilting.  Whatever, I can't complain, I got my chips in as a 70-30 favorite and got hit with the 30% bad result.  Besides, I never should have let my chips get that low in the first place.

The hand the crippled me was also during the 5th level with 100/200 blinds+25 ante.  I'm in the BB w AJo.  The CO, a different old guy, raises to 600.  I have about 8,200 or so in chips.  Just in case the CO is trying to steal my blinds I decide to pop him one time with a big pre flop raise.  So I raise to 2,200.  I actually threw out the wrong amount of chips I wanted to.  I meant to raise to 2,000 but forgot to pull back my 200 big blind.  Whatever, Opponent calls.  I decide after he called that I was done with the hand.  I figure he has like 10's, J's, Q's, maybe AK, AQ.  The flop comes K 7 4 rainbow.  While I did decide that I was done with the hand, the flop was just too dry for me not to bet and try to take it down.  the only problem was that I only had 6,000 left and a good sized, meaningful bet would consume a big chunk of my stack if I was wrong.  But with the flop of K high, the only hands I figured I had to worry about were AK, KK and maybe AA - I really doubted he had AA though.  And if he had 10's, JJ or even QQ, or AQ, it would be tough for him to call a big bet by me since I wouldn't have much left.  I bet out 3,500, leaving me with 2,500 left if I lose.  He instantly goes all in.  I instantly stepped in it and fold.  I think he had KK or AK.  Now I'm crippled with 2,500 in chips, the very situation I dread being in.  I really should have only raised to 1,700-1,800 preflop, that way my continuation bet could have been much smaller and I could have escaped with having still about 4,000 - just enough to be somewhat selective and have some folding power.  And I can't be thinking that every late position raise at my blinds are guys trying to steal.  Especially these older guys.  Gotta give them credit for a hand.

I was really off in this event, having lapses in my concentration, etc.  I really misplayed another hand earlier.  I actually bet out the wrong amount of chips again.  I'm not sure why, but I can't seem to focus 100% since the World Series and my tournament play has been dreadful.  I'm very disappointed in my Legends and this events performance.  So much so, that I'm not going to play anymore tournaments until the $15,000 WPT event at the Bellagio in December.  I'm thinking that maybe because the World Series was such an exciting, adreline pumping event, I'm not as anxious to play in other tournaments and therefore, can't maintain my focus/concentration.  I think I need to wait a while to play another one until I get REALLY anxious.  I'm not sure how those top tournament players do it, play consistently well every event.  I guess that's why they're TOP players.  I give those guys a lot of credit.  They have the mental stamina of an Ironman competitor.

The one hand I bet the wrong amount was I had Qs 9c in late position and tried to steal the blinds+antes and raised to 700.  The BB (who finished 70 something in this year's WSOP) called.  The flop came down Q little little, all clubs.  The BB bets out 750.  I figure he has some kind of AQ, KQ, QJ, Q 10 type of hand here.  But I really want to know if he has the Ace of clubs.  So I decide to make it 2,100 but throw out the wrong color chips so I barely throw out 1,400.  The dealer tells me I have to complete the raise and make it 1,500.  The BB just calls.  Since he just called I figure he doesn't have the Ace of clubs, if he did, I guessed that he would move it all in there.  So I decide that I'm going to represent that I have a big hand on the turn and since he doesn't have the Ace of clubs he also has to be concerned that I do.  The turn blanks off with no club, he checks and I think about whether to pull the trigger and move all in.  At this point, I figure I'm beat but I think there's a good chance he doesn't have any club and my 9c would be good if a club rivers.  I'm telling myself that I'm about 60% sure that he'll fold to my all in shove.  I don't think this guy would call off a big chunk of his stack with just top pair on a 3 flush card board without a draw to at least a K high flush.  I thought he was too good of a player for that.  But I'm really trying to be much more selective in choosing my bluffs.  I'm so tired of firing off a bluff against a player who can't fold one pair.  Anyway, after about 45 seconds or so, I move all in for about 3,500.  He thinks for 1-2 mins and folds.  He said he had K Q.  I told him I had AK with the Ace of clubs, just to get him steaming and he did steam. 

I really don't get it, but people really hate it when they get bluffed off a hand.  To me, that's like a boxer yelling and screaming everytime he takes a good shot to the body - so long as you don't get knocked out, getting hit every now and then is just part of the game.

Anyway, I'm just going to work on my cash games until December.  I'll write later how I've done in cash games since July.  I'm in Vegas now for the next few days and don't want to jinx myself.  As of now, I'm hoping to win my $15,000 entry fee by playing live games at least 2-3 x's/week.  And I really want to win at least $10,000 playing online by December.  But, I can't seem to consistently win online no matter what I do.  Hopefully I'll turn the corner soon because I really would rather just stay at home and play.

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WPT at the Bike

What a disappointment, I make it to Day2 and bust out within 40 mins.  When I woke up Monday I really thought good things were going to happen to me on Day 2 since I was so unbelievably card dead the first day.  Oh well, not even the top pros go far in every tournament they play in.  A recap of my Legends of Poker experience.

Day 1 - Card dead pretty much the whole day.  I did pick up AA 3 times during the day but got no action each time.  Can you believe that?  I know my image was extremely tight since I was so card dead, but I was making my usual late position raises when it was folded to me.  I even got caught check-raising a A 5 6 flop with pocket 4's and got caught making a big bluff with 6-2 on a flop of K 3 4.  And when the blinds were 400-800 + 75 ante, I only had between 13,000-20,000 chips, I must have pushed all in 3 or 4 times preflop within 2 hours.  And when I pick up Aces to a raise, I get no action???  C'mon, when do I get the dream situation when I have either AA or KK and the opponent has KK or QQ's???  That hasn't happened for me in quite a while.  I swear, that was a pretty card dead experience, even more so than at the World Series and I thought I was card dead then.  I can remember all the good starting hands I had on the first day and it's 2 days afterwards as I write this.  I had 10-10 1x (lost after I called a preflop raise), 4-4 1x, 3-3 1x, 2-2 1x (I won the blinds on this one after I raised pre-flop), 8-8 (I won the blinds) and I had AKo 1x and lost that hand.  No KK, QQ, JJ, not even AQ.  I had 98s 1x and raised with it and ended up losing the pot after I semi-bluffed on the flop - the guy had Aces.  Keep in mind that this is over a 12 hour period.  No sets, no flushes, brutal.  Anyway, I squeaked through Day 1 and ended up with 31,000 chips to start Day2 with the 500-1000 +100 ante.  I like to think that I got through with some good timed steals and by playing a short stack pretty well, but who know's, maybe I was just lucky.  But I think I'm getting pretty good with a short and medium stack in these tournaments.  I have no clue on how to play a big stack since I haven't been fortunate enough to obtain one yet.

Day 2 - After 35 mins or so, I raise UTG with AKo and the guy right next to me pushes all in and makes it 15,500 more to me.  I do a count of my chips and if I call and lose and I have 12,200 left.  If I win, I go over 50,000, still not that great of a chip position considering the blinds.  In a cash game this is a no brainer call I think.  I put the guy on 9's thru Q's or at the worst AQ.  So I figure I'm probably 45-55 against winning.  I think to myself that it's about time I get lucky in this damn tournament at this casino that I truly find disgusting so I make the call.  The guy shows 10-10.  I lose the race.  What a shocker huh?  I played for 12 hours the night before only to lose this race and get crippled.  Any comments on how I played this hand would be appreciated.  I think the best play was to fold, given that I really thought the guy had some sort of pair.  In other words, 55% of time I lose and cripple myself.  Oh well.  Not even Doyle Brunson does well in every tournament he plays in so at least I find some comfort in that.  By the way, Doyle's daughter Pamela Brunson was on my table on Day 1 and I think she's an excellent player.  Another shocker huh?

Anyway, this was my 4th big tournament that I've played in with a bunch of legitimate pros in it and I think I figured out what many of the top pros do (and more importantly what they dont do) to go far in these events.  That's the good news.  The bad news about these tournaments is that I really hate playing in them.  They're so damn tiring, frustrating and pressure packed.  I mean you have to play 12+ hours every day, while listening to a bunch of annoying voices, stupid stories and bad beats???  It's really brutal.  If it wasn't an opporunity to win hundreds of thousands or a million dollars I wouldn't even bother with them anymore.  I don't think I'm going to play in any more until the Bellagio $15K Five Diamond event in December.  Playing at the Bike was the complete opposite of what I thought it would be.  I thought it would be nice to play at home, being able to sleep in my own bed, etc.  It sucked, playing there in that ugly tournament room that I've played in many times before made everything seem so unspecial, just normal.  And even more so, this one Bike regular (who I think is so annoying and such a weak player) was on my table.  So everytime I tried to fire myself up by telling myself I'm playing in a big WPT event and need to hang in there and play my best, I'd look up and see this idiot.  What a drag on my enthusiasm.  No more tournaments for me at the Bike.  I don't even think I'd play in any at Commerce.  Just Vegas and out of town.  Besides, I really want to work on my cash games since the variance is so much lower.  So my immediate poker plans are to continue working on new things and styles on Full Tilt, play more live games (the 10/20 at Commerce once I'm not busy anymore with work) and play the WPT Bellagio tournament in December.  I want to win my $15,000 entry between now and December.  That's my immediate goal.  We'll see how that goes.

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Tournaments

I played the $1,000 super satellite at the Bicycle Casino today.  There were 270-something players; I think I heard 27 seats were being awarded to the $10K WPT Main Event which starts Sat 8/25.  I decided around February that I wasn't going to play satellites anymore or any other tournaments unless I won an entry playing cash games - except for the World Series Main Event.  I really just wanted to play the WSOP Main Event this year because I felt that I've been playing poker for about 4 years and have never played in the Main Event.  I really just wanted to be able to say that I played in it.  ANyway, about today's satellite at the Bike...since I came off my deep finish at the WSOP, I thought maybe I was running really good and should press my luck.  So I made an exception to play in this sattelite. Bad idea.  Same type of tournament as many before and a very similar result that I'm all too used to.  I ended up busting out around 58-59-ish.  I really hate these 30 minute level tournaments.  There's just not enough play.  We started with 3,000 in chips and the first level was 25-25.  Sounds good, except that when you run card dead for an hour, your stack gets really short.  So, no more satellites for me.  After this one, I've lost in a total of 6 of these $1K satellites since the beginning of 2006.  That's it, gotta stop the bleeding.  No mas.

Despite the disappointing result and losing a grand, I felt I played about as well as I could have, given the situations I faced.  I was short stacked since the after the 4th level or so, but was able to keep my stack growing by making some pretty good timed all-in pushed pre-flop.  I tried to steal at least 1x every round and was just hoping that I would wake up with a big hand when everyone thought I was just pushing.  That didn't work out too well for me.  After I made 3 or 4 all-in preflop pushes without showing a hand, I finally pick up Aces after this one guy open raises from UTG+1.  This guy just got to our table so he didnt see how many times I was shoving.  So, I shoved on him and he took a while and folded.  He had a lot of chips.  I'm guessing he had 8's-10's and thought I had 2 overcards like AK, AQ, AJ and didn't want to race.  Bad result for JK. 

Well, at least I can say that everytime I got my chips in and was called pre-flop, I was ahead.  I lost w QQ v A7 and AQ vs 6-8 both times when we got it all-in preflop.  The 6-8 hand was the one that busted me.  The guy was in the cutoff and was just making a normal steal - I was in the small blind.  I guess he felt he was pot committed and this was the same guy I moved in on earlier with the Aces.  Oh well, what are you going to do...

I actually really don't care for playing tournaments, unless it's the really big ones.  From the ones I've played in, and I've played in a lot of $200 to $1,000 tournaments, there's just so much luck involved.  The levels are 45 mins at most and there's just not that much post-flop play.  Of course, I'm sure my dislike for these tournaments are because I've lost so much money playing in them, over $20K.  I'm sure if I was in the black, I'd like them a lot more.  I really prefer playing cash games.  I feel I'm about a 60-65% favorite to have a winning session in a live cash game for a win of $200 to $2000; and about a 20:1 shot just to make the money in a tournament.  Also, 80-90% of all the tournament players I've played with seem to be pretty weak overall (these percentages are for tournaments with buy-ins of $1,000 and below) - I figure if I can play with the weaker tournament players in a cash game, I'd eventually get their money.  Aghhhhhh, I'm sure I'm just rambling on about these weak players because I just busted out and feel pretty pissed about it.

Anyway, I'm playing the WPT Main Event on Sunday.  I bought in for the $10K entry.  I've always wanted to play a big tournament here at home, even though it is at the Bike.  I think that place is such a dumpy place. I mean you go to Vegas and play at the Bellagio or the Rio or the Venetian, and then you go to the Bicycle Casino???  Pretty digusting.  Well, we'll see what happens.  I really like the rush of playing with the big name pro's and just knowing there's a $million+ first prize.  So far I've cashed in 2 out 2 tournaments with $10K+ buy-ins - I'm very anxious to see if I can go 3 for 3...

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Losing Streak

Since I've been back from the WSOP, I've had this losing streak from my first day back playing online.  I've lost $2,000 up until earlier tonight in a total of 41 hours - I won $500 tonight, so the bleeding was worse until today.  I've mosty been playing 2/4 and 3/6 9 handed NL online.  I also had a $400 losing session a couple of weeks ago at Commerce's 10/20 NL game (was just card dead for about 3 hours and got sick of it and left).  I'm not exactly sure what's the reason.  I think I've been playing well and I know I've had some unfortunate breaks, I had KK and ran into AA twice (lost $400+ each time); had AJ vs 88 on a flop of AJ8 and lost $400+; had KK and lost to QQ for $300 or so.  I know I really misplayed 1 hand w AJ vs AQ where an Ace flopped and I lost $200+ on that hand.  But putting all of this into perspective, I've only loss 4-5 buy-in's - this isn't that big of a deal.  So I'm not about to make changes to my game, at least not yet.  If I lose another $2,000, then I'll start to think about changes to try.

Here's some of the hands since I've been back.

1. Bit of a cooler
FullTiltPoker Game #3147576933: Table Copper Mesa - $3/$6 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:56:55 ET - 2007/08/04
Seat 1: chislodc ($718.95)
Seat 2: Luckbox4 ($1 438.80)
Seat 3: Good Hand AA ($288.70)
Seat 4: 21SeanTaylor ($582)
Seat 5: littlekiki ($831.60)
Seat 6: JOEMARY ($417.75)
Seat 7: Hero ($432.45)
Seat 8: CDNMoose ($1 048.80)
Seat 9: PoorNapoleon ($1 035)
Good Hand AA posts the small blind of $3
21SeanTaylor posts the big blind of $6
The button is in seat #2

Holecards:
Dealt to Hero [ ]
littlekiki calls $6
JOEMARY folds
Hero raises to $24
CDNMoose folds
PoorNapoleon folds
chislodc folds
Luckbox4 calls $24
Good Hand AA folds
21SeanTaylor folds
littlekiki calls $18

Flop:
[ ]
littlekiki checks
Hero bets $40
Luckbox4 folds
littlekiki raises to $90
Hero raises to $408.45, and is all in
littlekiki calls $318.45
Hero shows [ ]
littlekiki shows [ ]

Turn:
[ ] [ ]

River:
[ ] [ ]
Hero shows two pair Aces and Jacks
littlekiki shows three of a kind Eights
littlekiki wins the pot ($894 .90) with three of a kind Eights
Hero is sitting out

SUMMARY:
Total pot $897 .90 | Rake $3
Board:
[ ]
Seat 1: chislodc didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Luckbox4 (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: Good Hand AA (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: 21SeanTaylor (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: littlekiki showed [ ] and won ($894.90) with three of a kind Eights
Seat 6: JOEMARY didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: Hero showed [ ] and lost with two pair Aces and Jacks
Seat 8: CDNMoose didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: PoorNapoleon didn't bet (folded)


2. Keep getting Kings and running into Aces.  Maybe I have to learn to get away from KK.  But I suspect that if I’m folding KK here (when my put opponent on a big pair), more often than not I’ll be folding the best hand.

FullTiltPoker Game #3148465459: Table Copper Mesa - $3/$6 - No Limit Hold'em - 4:13:44 ET - 2007/08/04
Seat 1: littlekiki ($588)
Seat 2: JoeyWorld ($929.65)
Seat 3: The Random ($605)
Seat 4: 21SeanTaylor ($1 119.15)
Seat 5: agore111 ($663)
Seat 6: heinz59 ($456)
Seat 7: Hero ($570.40)
Seat 8: RainManFL ($592.75)
JoeyWorld posts the small blind of $3
The Random posts the big blind of $6
The button is in seat #1

Holecards:
Dealt to Hero [ ]
21SeanTaylor folds
agore111 folds
heinz59 calls $6
Hero raises to $27
RainManFL folds
littlekiki folds
JoeyWorld folds
The Random folds
heinz59 raises to $90
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
pudpounder1 sits down
Hero calls $63

Flop :
[ ]
pudpounder1 adds $120
heinz59 bets $366, and is all in
The Random is feeling angry
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero calls $366
heinz59 shows [ ]
Hero shows [ ]

Turn :
[ ] [ ]

River:
[ ] [ ]
heinz59 shows three of a kind Aces
Hero shows a pair of Kings
heinz59 wins the pot ($918) with three of a kind Aces

SUMMARY:
Total pot $921 | Rake $3
Board:
[ ]
Seat 1: littlekiki (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: JoeyWorld (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: The Random (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: 21SeanTaylor didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: agore111 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: heinz59 showed [ ] and won ($918) with three of a kind Aces
Seat 7: Hero showed [ ] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 8: RainManFL didn't bet (folded)



3.  AJ played poorly.  I should have raised on the flop to see where I was at, and could have folded if I got re-raised.  I really can’t be giving away my money with Top Pair like this, played this one very poorly.
FullTiltPoker Game #3148014438: Table Hollow Pine - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:55:49 ET - 2007/08/04
Seat 1: Count Stacula ($513.30)
Seat 2: 2kingstx ($400)
Seat 3: Hero ($384)
Seat 4: reeeg ($420.30) is sitting out
Seat 5: coachpelham ($217.50)
Seat 6: suchaputz ($152)
Seat 7: irishpr8587 ($1 211.40)
Seat 8: Capt_Drinker ($398)
Seat 9: Yardmanfhp ($1 026)
Yardmanfhp posts the small blind of $2
Count Stacula posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #8

Holecards:
Dealt to Hero [ ]
2kingstx folds
Hero raises to $14
coachpelham calls $14
suchaputz folds
irishpr8587 folds
Capt_Drinker calls $14
Yardmanfhp folds
Count Stacula folds

Flop:
[ ]
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero bets $35
coachpelham raises to $70
Capt_Drinker folds
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero calls $35

Turn :
[ ] [ ]
Hero checks
coachpelham bets $44
Hero calls $44

River:
[ ] [ ]
Hero checks
coachpelham bets $89.50, and is all in
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero calls $89.50
irishpr8587 : uh u cant fold now lol

Showdown:
coachpelham shows [ ] three of a kind, Aces
Hero mucks
coachpelham wins the pot ($452) with three of a kind, Aces

SUMMARY:
Total pot $455 | Rake $3
Board:
[ ]
Seat 1: Count Stacula (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: 2kingstx didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: Hero mucked [ ] - three of a kind Aces
Seat 4: reeeg is sitting out
Seat 5: coachpelham showed [ ] and won ($452) with three of a kind Aces
Seat 6: suchaputz didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: irishpr8587 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: Capt_Drinker (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: Yardmanfhp (small blind) folded before the Flop


4.  Aces gone bad...
FullTiltPoker Game #3216888190: Table Mountain Home - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:07:44 ET - 2007/08/11
Seat 1: SnoopJAY ($297.40)
Seat 2: izzymond ($413.20)
Seat 3: kokomo_44 ($832.70)
Seat 4: nsewell4 ($394)
Seat 5: Stacks Edwardz ($442.50)
Seat 6: rakeback88_com ($416.70)
Seat 7: FrOgMaZe ($170)
Seat 8: skarlghks ($385.20)
Seat 9: KID POOKER ($729.90)
izzymond has 5 seconds left to act
izzymond posts the small blind of $2
kokomo_44 posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #1

Holecards :
Dealt to SnoopJAY [ ]
nsewell4 folds
Stacks Edwardz folds
rakeback88_com folds
FrOgMaZe folds
skarlghks raises to $14
KID POOKER calls $14
SnoopJAY raises to $62
izzymond folds
kokomo_44 folds
skarlghks adds $28.80
skarlghks folds
KID POOKER calls $48

Flop:
[ ]
KID POOKER checks
SnoopJAY has 15 seconds left to act
SnoopJAY bets $235.40 and is all in
KID POOKER calls $235.40
SnoopJAY shows [ ]
KID POOKER shows [ ]

Turn :
[ ] [ ]

River:
[ ] [ ]
SnoopJAY shows a pair of Aces
KID POOKER shows three of a kind Queens
KID POOKER wins the pot ($611 .80) with three of a kind Queens
SnoopJAY is sitting out

SUMMARY:
Total pot $614 .80 | Rake $3
Board:
[ ]
Seat 1: SnoopJAY (button) showed [ ] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 2: izzymond (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: kokomo_44 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: nsewell4 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Stacks Edwardz didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: rakeback88_com didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: FrOgMaZe didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: skarlghks folded before the Flop
Seat 9: KID POOKER showed [ ] and won ($611 .80) with three of a kind, Queens



5.  On a positive note...This guy really misplayed KK here.  It was so clear that he was beat.  I was very shocked he made the push.  I've been searching for this guy every time I log on now.
FullTiltPoker Game #3235081311: Table Canyon Run - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:26:57 ET - 2007/08/12
Seat 1: pertbj06 ($255.20)
Seat 2: Hero ($298)
Seat 3: silentpjt78 ($258.20)
Seat 4: brewzyr ($199.10)
Seat 5: nsewell4 ($443.30)
Seat 6: red2rooster ($238.30)
Seat 7: Sammy000 ($98.40)
Seat 8: ericberen ($790.60)
Seat 9: hells fury ($229.80)
silentpjt78 posts the small blind of $2
brewzyr has 5 seconds left to act
brewzyr posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #2

Holecards :
Dealt to Hero [ ]
nsewell4 folds
red2rooster folds
Sammy000 folds
ericberen raises to $14
hells fury calls $14
pertbj06 folds
Hero calls $14
silentpjt78 folds
brewzyr folds

Flop:
[ ]
ericberen bets $34
hells fury calls $34
Hero calls $34

Turn:
[ ] [ ]
ericberen checks
hells fury has 15 seconds left to act
hells fury bets $100
Hero calls $100
ericberen has 15 seconds left to act
ericberen has requested TIME
ericberen raises to $348
hells fury folds
Hero calls $150 and is all in
ericberen shows [ ]
Hero shows [ ]
Uncalled bet of $98 returned to ericberen

River :
[ ] [ ]
ericberen shows two pair Kings and Sixes
Hero shows a full house Jacks full of Sixes
Hero wins the pot ($747) with a full house Jacks full of Sixes

SUMMARY:
Total pot $750 | Rake $3
Board:
[ ]
Seat 1: pertbj06 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Hero (button) showed [ ] and won ($747) with a full house Jacks full of Sixes
Seat 3: silentpjt78 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: brewzyr (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: nsewell4 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: red2rooster didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: Sammy000 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: ericberen showed [ ] and lost with two pair Kings and Sixes
Seat 9: hells fury folded on the Turn


7.  Another one where I misplayed.  I think I could have lost a little less.  I didn't have to get stacked off here.  This is the problem of playing from out of position, when you're beat, you lose a big pot.  I'm not sure, but I may have been able to save some money if my stack was deeper.  I should start keeping my stack at atleast the maximum 100BB buy-in and see how that goes.

FullTiltPoker Game #3275654257: Table Courage - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:26:00 ET - 2007/08/16
Seat 1: Riles69 ($0) is sitting out
Seat 2: Hero ($258.80)
Seat 3: nsewell4 ($597.50)
Seat 4: Sammy000 ($71.60)
Seat 5: Q_213 ($526.55)
Seat 7: babi_blue ($386.70)
Seat 8: j23ad ($392)
Seat 9: adult_diapers ($529.40)
j23ad posts the small blind of $2
adult_diapers posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #7

Holecards:
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Riles69 stands up
Hero raises to $14
nsewell4 folds
Sammy000 folds
Q_213 calls $14
babi_blue folds
j23ad folds
adult_diapers folds

Flop:
[ ]
JPflop adds $200
Hero bets $25
Q_213 calls $25

Turn:
[ ] [ ]
JPflop has been disconnected
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero bets $75
JPflop has reconnected
Q_213 has 15 seconds left to act
Q_213 raises to $150
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero has requested TIME
Shinkansen sits down
Shinkansen adds $160
Hero raises to $219.80 and is all in
Q_213 calls $69.80
Hero shows [ ]
Q_213 shows [ ]

River :
[ ] [ ]
Hero shows two pair Jacks and Fours
Q_213 shows three of a kind Fours
Q_213 wins the pot ($520 .60) with three of a kind Fours
Hero is sitting out

SUMMARY:
Total pot $523 .60 | Rake $3
Board:
[ ]
Seat 1: Riles69 is sitting out
Seat 2: Hero showed [ ] and lost with two pair Jacks and Fours
Seat 3: nsewell4 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: Sammy000 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Q_213 showed [ ] and won ($520 .60) with three of a kind Fours
Seat 7: babi_blue (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: j23ad (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: adult_diapers (big blind) folded before the Flop



I've decided that I really need to work on playing from out of position.  I've decided I'm going to focus a lot on playing the smaller deep stack NL games on Full Tilt, the .40/.80 $160 buy in and the .75/$1.50 $300 buy in games.  This should really give me lots of practice playing deep stacked poker as well as playing heads-up.  This should be great practice for the Commerce 10/20 deep stack NL game where people are buying for $2,000 to $10,000 (and a lot of them don't play with deep stacks very well).

Anyway, this blog has become too long again.  A lot of rambling....

I'll be playing the WPT event at the Bicycle Casino at the end of the month.   I'll blog about my results after that one.  For the remainder of the year, I plan to play the $10,000 WPT at the Bike, the $2,500 Commerce Cal State Championship Main Event in Sept and the $15,000 Bellagio WPT in December.  If I don't make any money in those tournaments, I'll take another long break from the tournament scene. 

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badly played or unlucky?

Full Tilt Poker Game #2695355445: Table Hedge Top - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:07:35 ET - 2007/06/17
Seat 1: LongAlpha ($362)
Seat 2: bigpapi3415 ($216.40)
Seat 3: WayneGrow ($406.30)
Seat 4: URaACEhole ($208.10)
Seat 5: Stylistic ($819.40)
Seat 6: deathbyajd ($416.30)
Seat 7: Hero ($615.10)
Seat 8: SantosLHalper1 ($270.25) is sitting out
Seat 9: styleWcash ($424)
styleWcash posts the small blind of $2
LongAlpha posts the big blind of $4
5 seconds left to act
The button is in seat #7

Holecards:
Dealt to Hero [ ]
WayneGrow folds
URaACEhole folds
Stylistic raises to $14
deathbyajd folds
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero raises to $50
styleWcash folds
LongAlpha folds
Stylistic calls $36

Flop :
[ ]
Stylistic checks
Hero bets $80
Stylistic raises to $250
Hero raises to $565.10, and is all in
Stylistic calls $315.10
Hero shows [ ]
Stylistic shows [ ]

Turn:
[ ] [ ]

River:
[ ] [ ]
Hero shows two pair Aces and Queens
Stylistic shows a flush Queen high
Stylistic wins the pot ($1 233 .20) with a flush Queen high
Hero is sitting out

SUMMARY:
Total pot $1 236 .20 | Rake $3
Board:
[ ]
Seat 1: LongAlpha (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: bigpapi3415 is sitting out
Seat 3: WayneGrow didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: URaACEhole didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Stylistic showed [ ] and won ($1 233.20) with a flush Queen high
Seat 6: deathbyajd didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: Hero (button) showed [ ] and lost with two pair Aces and Queens
Seat 8: SantosLHalper1 is sitting out
Seat 9: styleWcash (small blind) folded before the Flop


But here's my equity assuming a pretty reasonable range of hands for Opponent, even giving him to small suited connectors where he flop a flush (I'm about a 60% favorite vs. a reasonable range).  Earlier in the session, I raised his pre flop raises about 3-4 times and thought he was going to come after me sooner or later; I thought he was coming after me now.  Wrong.  Lucky for him.  The funny thing is, is that I sat at this table just to play with this guy because I noticed he had been losing lately.  Seems to work out that way for me when I target guys that are running bad that day.

Board: 2d Qd 9d

Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 60.475% 60.47% 00.00% 5987 0.00 { AdAh }

Hand 1: 39.525% 39.53% 00.00% 3913 0.00 { KdKh, KdKs, 99, 6d5d, 4d3d, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs }

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100 hours over, +$307 overall, not ready to quit my day job for sure.

5/30 - 6/16. Sessions result +112 (overall project: +307); 37.5 hours (total: 100.1 hours).

I finally completed this little project of playing 100 hours and seeing how much I can make.  Well, I ended up waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay below the $10,000 goal, making only $307, coming out to $3.07/hr, would be way better off flipping burgers.  A few observations (that may sould like excuses) for this pathetic win rate are:

1.  Well, at least I ended up positive.  When I started this 100 hour goal, I thought I was 70% likely to have won something less than $10K - although I thought it would most likely be +$3-4K.  But, considering that most of all players out there would probably be overall losers if they played and tracked their results for 100 hours, a small win is decent I suppose.
2.  When I originally thought of the $10,000 goal, I planned on playing at least half of my sessions at the 10/20 NL and 5/10 NL live games.  It ended up that I only played the live 10/20 game one session for about 3 hours or so and won like $20-something that day.  My hourly win rate has always been better playing live than online, I think because the stakes are higher, which translates to more money being won (or lost).
3.  I primarily played on the internet (1/2 NL, 2/4 NL and 3/6 NL), winning $480 overall for my internet sessions.
4.  One session I wish I didn't play was over the Cinco De Mayo weekend when I played so tired at the Bellagio 2/5 game and lost $700-something.  But even if I didn't play that session I would have only won about $1K, and that's not that great either.

5.  I'm going to try to play live games more, particularly the 10/20 at Commerce and the 5/10 at the Bike.  I'm going to try to play live at least 2 times a week, and play 3-4 times a week on the internet.  Even though I can't seem win much money playing on the internet, I can't help myself from trying.  I really believe that playing on the internet is one of the best and quickest ways to improve one's game (as well as destruct it because of the increased tendency to tilt and tilt bad online).

6.  I'm going to track 2 separate things.  Will track the next 100 hours playing on the internet and the next 100 hours playing live.  I should be able to play a lot of poker between now and the end of July, especially in the beginning of July when I go to WSOP.

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